Pharmacological treatments for alcohol dependence: Evidence on uptake, inequalities and comparative effectiveness from a UK population-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the prevalence of prescribing of certain medications for alcohol dependence and the extent of any inequalities in receiving prescriptions for individuals with such a diagnosis. Further, we compared the effectiveness of two of the most prescribed medications (acamprosate and disulfiram) for alcohol dependence and assessed whether there is inequality in prescribing either of them. METHODS: We used a nationwide dataset on prescriptions and hospitalisations in Scotland, UK (N = 19,748). We calculated the percentage of patients receiving alcohol dependence prescriptions after discharge, both overall and by socio-economic groups. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the odds of receiving any alcohol-dependence prescription and the comparative odds of receiving acamprosate or disulfiram. Comparative effectiveness in avoiding future alcohol-related hospitalisations (N = 11,239) was assessed using Cox modelling with statistical adjustment for potential confounding. RESULTS: Upto 7% of hospitalised individuals for alcohol use disorder received prescriptions for alcohol dependence after being discharged. Least deprived socio-economic groups had relatively more individuals receiving prescriptions. Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence existed, especially across sex and comorbidities: males had 12% (odds ratio [OR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96) and those with a history of mental health hospitalisations had 10% (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.98) lower odds of receiving prescriptions after an alcohol-related hospitalisation. Prescribing disulfiram was superior to prescribing acamprosate in preventing alcohol-related hospitalisations (hazard ratio ranged between 0.60 and 0.81 across analyses). Disulfiram was relatively less likely prescribed to those from more deprived areas. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence exists in Scotland with lower prescribing to men and disulfiram prescribed more to those from least deprived areas.

Personalised Exercise-Rehabilitation FOR people with Multiple long-term conditions (PERFORM): protocol for a randomised feasibility trial.

INTRODUCTION: Personalised Exercise-Rehabilitation FOR people with Multiple long-term conditions (PERFORM) is a research programme that seeks to develop and evaluate a comprehensive exercise-based rehabilitation intervention designed for people with multimorbidity, the presence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs). This paper describes the protocol for a randomised trial to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the PERFORM intervention, study design and processes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A multicentre, parallel two-group randomised trial with individual 2:1 allocation to the PERFORM exercise-based intervention plus usual care (intervention) or usual care alone (control). The primary outcome of this feasibility trial will be to assess whether prespecified progression criteria (recruitment, retention, intervention adherence) are met to progress to the full randomised trial. The trial will be conducted across three UK sites and 60 people with MLTCs, defined as two or more LTCs, with at least one having evidence of the beneficial effect of exercise. The PERFORM intervention comprises an 8-week (twice a week for 6 weeks and once a week for 2 weeks) supervised rehabilitation programme of personalised exercise training and self-management education delivered by trained healthcare professionals followed by two maintenance sessions. Trial participants will be recruited over a 4.5-month period, and outcomes assessed at baseline (prerandomisation) and 3 months postrandomisation and include health-related quality of life, psychological well-being, symptom burden, frailty, exercise capacity, physical activity, sleep, cognition and serious adverse events. A mixed-methods process evaluation will assess acceptability, feasibility and fidelity of intervention delivery and feasibility of trial processes. An economic evaluation will assess the feasibility of data collection and estimate the costs of the PERFORM intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been given favourable opinion by the West Midlands, Edgbaston Research Ethics Service (Ref: 23/WM/0057). Participants will be asked to give full, written consent to take part by trained researchers. Findings will be disseminated via journals, presentations and targeted communications to clinicians, commissioners, service users and patients and the public. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN68786622. PROTOCOL VERSION: 2.0 (16 May 2023).

An observational analysis of frailty in combination with loneliness or social isolation and their association with socioeconomic deprivation, hospitalisation and mortality among UK Biobank participants.

Frailty, social isolation, and loneliness have individually been associated with adverse health outcomes. This study examines how frailty in combination with loneliness or social isolation is associated with socioeconomic deprivation and with all-cause mortality and hospitalisation rate in a middle-aged and older population. Baseline data from 461,047 UK Biobank participants (aged 37-73) were used to assess frailty (frailty phenotype), social isolation, and loneliness. Weibull models assessed the association between frailty in combination with loneliness or social isolation and all-cause mortality adjusted for age/sex/smoking/alcohol/socioeconomic-status and number of long-term conditions. Negative binomial regression models assessed hospitalisation rate. Frailty prevalence was 3.38%, loneliness 4.75% and social isolation 9.04%. Frailty was present across all ages and increased with age. Loneliness and social isolation were more common in younger participants compared to older. Co-occurrence of frailty and loneliness or social isolation was most common in participants with high socioeconomic deprivation. Frailty was associated with increased mortality and hospitalisation regardless of social isolation/loneliness. Hazard ratios for mortality were 2.47 (2.27-2.69) with social isolation and 2.17 (2.05-2.29) without social isolation, 2.14 (1.92-2.38) with loneliness and 2.16 (2.05-2.27) without loneliness. Loneliness and social isolation were associated with mortality and hospitalisation in robust participants, but this was attenuated in the context of frailty. Frailty and loneliness/social isolation affect individuals across a wide age spectrum and disproportionately co-occur in areas of high deprivation. All were associated with adverse outcomes, but the association between loneliness and social isolation and adverse outcomes was attenuated in the context of frailty. Future interventions should target people living with frailty or loneliness/social isolation, regardless of age.

Sex differences in cancer outcomes across the range of eGFR.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have increased incidence and mortality from most cancer types. We hypothesised that odds of presenting with advanced cancer may vary according to differences in eGFR, that this could contribute to increased all-cause mortality and that sex differences may exist. METHODS: Data were from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, including people with de-novo cancer diagnosis (2011-2017) and two kidney function tests within two years prior to diagnosis to determine baseline eGFR (mL/min/1.73m2). Logistic regression models determined odds of presenting with advanced cancer by baseline eGFR. Cox proportional hazards models tested associations between baseline eGFRcr and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: eGFR < 30 was associated with higher odds of presenting with advanced cancer of prostate, breast and female genital organs, but not other cancer sites. Compared to eGFR > 75-90, eGFR < 30 was associated with greater hazards of all-cause mortality in both sexes, but the association was stronger in females (female: HR 1.71, 95%CI 1.56-1.88; male versus female comparison HR 0.88, 95%CI 0.78-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Lower or higher eGFR was not associated with substantially higher odds of presenting with advanced cancer across most cancer sites, but was associated with reduced survival. A stronger assocation with all-cause mortality in females compared to males with eGFR < 30 is concerning and warrants further scrutiny.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients.

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for community-based adults with COVID-19 and increased risk of adverse outcomes in the UK PANORAMIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations. AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over six months. DESIGN AND SETTING: Economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK. METHOD: A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK National Health Service and personal social services perspective and a six-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI 0.004 to 0.007) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except those aged ≥75 years with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15000 per QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: Molnupiravir at the current cost of £513 per course is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a six-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated COVID-19 patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

General practice pharmacist-led antipsychotic physical health monitoring: a prospective intervention scoping study.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental health illness die prematurely, often due to preventable cardiometabolic disease, which can be exacerbated by antipsychotic medicines that are effective for treating mental illness. Literature demonstrates that physical health monitoring, as recommended in guidelines, for people receiving antipsychotics is substandard. Therefore, we aimed to scope the potential of a general practice clinical pharmacist (GPCP)-led multidisciplinary intervention optimising adherence to cardiometabolic monitoring guidelines and delivering polypharmacy reviews. METHOD: Prospective intervention scoping study in three urban general practices; one usual care, two intervention. Patients 18-65 years old prescribed oral antipsychotics were identified from records, and invited for cardiometabolic monitoring and GPCP medication review, from January to December 2022. Interventions and onward referrals were recorded and collated. Anonymised pre- and post-review data were analysed, and actions were graded for clinical importance. RESULTS: In total 1.5% (210/14,159) of patients aged 18-65 years met inclusion criteria; usual care practice (n = 58); and intervention practices (n = 152). From baseline, the usual care practice achieved an absolute 7% increase in the cardiometabolic monitoring care bundle (glucose/glycosylated haemoglobin, lipids, blood pressure plus body mass index) versus 19-58% in the intervention practices. Two-thirds (92/152) of patients participated in medication reviews, requiring pharmacological and/or non-pharmacological clinical actions. The majority of actions were graded as moderate importance. Seven percentage of patients were identified as new pre-diabetic/diabetic and 6% were at high risk of cardiovascular disease requiring statin initiation. CONCLUSION: A pharmacist-led multidisciplinary general practice-based approach may be effective at optimising cardiometabolic monitoring; identifying and treating diabetic and cardiovascular risk factors.

People with severe mental illness die 15­20 years earlier than the general population, many due to preventable and/or treatable heart disease. While antipsychotic medicines are effective for treating mental illness they are associated with potential adverse effects; weight gain, increased blood pressure, blood sugar, and cholesterol. Therefore, guidelines advise regular physical health checks for people with severe mental illness, and those receiving antipsychotics, to reduce avoidable harms and optimise preventative treatments. However, routine monitoring is substandard. This study aimed to explore the potential of a general practice pharmacist-led intervention to optimise physical health monitoring and medication reviews, from January to December 2022. Three practices participated; one providing usual care, and two the pharmacist intervention. The usual care practice achieved a 7% increase in all monitoring parameters (weight, blood pressure, blood sugars plus cholesterol), whereas the pharmacist-led practices achieved a 19­58% increase in monitoring. Two in three patients (92/152) participated in a medication review with the pharmacists that addressed a range of mental and physical health issues. Of the 152 patients in the intervention practices 6% were identified as being at high risk of heart disease requiring preventative medicines, and 7% were identified as having new diabetes and/or pre-diabetes.

Epidemiology of multimorbidity in low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa: Findings from four population cohorts.

We investigated prevalence and demographic characteristics of adults living with multimorbidity (≥2 long-term conditions) in three low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa, using secondary population-level data from four cohorts; Malawi (urban & rural), The Gambia (rural) and Uganda (rural). Information on; measured hypertension, diabetes and obesity was available in all cohorts; measured hypercholesterolaemia and HIV and self-reported asthma was available in two cohorts and clinically diagnosed epilepsy in one cohort. Analyses included calculation of age standardised multimorbidity prevalence and the cross-sectional associations of multimorbidity and demographic/lifestyle factors using regression modelling. Median participant age was 29 (Inter quartile range-IQR 22-38), 34 (IQR25-48), 32 (IQR 22-53) and 37 (IQR 26-51) in urban Malawi, rural Malawi, The Gambia, and Uganda, respectively. Age standardised multimorbidity prevalence was higher in urban and rural Malawi (22.5%;95% Confidence intervals-CI 21.6-23.4%) and 11.7%; 95%CI 11.1-12.3, respectively) than in The Gambia (2.9%; 95%CI 2.5-3.4%) and Uganda (8.2%; 95%CI 7.5-9%) cohorts. In multivariate models, females were at greater risk of multimorbidity than males in Malawi (Incidence rate ratio-IRR 1.97, 95% CI 1.79-2.16 urban and IRR 2.10; 95%CI 1.86-2.37 rural) and Uganda (IRR- 1.60, 95% CI 1.32-1.95), with no evidence of difference between the sexes in The Gambia (IRR 1.16, 95% CI 0.86-1.55). There was strong evidence of greater multimorbidity risk with increasing age in all populations (p-value <0.001). Higher educational attainment was associated with increased multimorbidity risk in Malawi (IRR 1.78; 95% CI 1.60-1.98 urban and IRR 2.37; 95% CI 1.74-3.23 rural) and Uganda (IRR 2.40, 95% CI 1.76-3.26), but not in The Gambia (IRR 1.48; 95% CI 0.56-3.87). Further research is needed to study multimorbidity epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa with an emphasis on robust population-level data collection for a wide variety of long-term conditions and ensuring proportionate representation from men and women, and urban and rural areas.

Multimorbidity and Blood Pressure Control in Patients Attending Primary Care in Canada.

BACKGROUND: There has been conflicting evidence on the association between multimorbidity and blood pressure (BP) control. This study aimed to investigate this associations in people with hypertension attending primary care in Canada, and to assess whether individual long-term conditions are associated with BP control. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study in people with hypertension attending primary care in Toronto between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2019. Uncontrolled BP was defined as systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg. A list of 11 a priori selected chronic conditions was used to define multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was defined as having ≥1 long-term condition in addition to hypertension. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between multimorbidity (or individual long-term conditions) with uncontrolled BP. RESULTS: A total of 67 385 patients with hypertension were included. They had a mean age of 70, 53.1% were female, 80.6% had multimorbidity, and 35.7% had uncontrolled BP. Patients with multimorbidity had lower odds of uncontrolled BP than those without multimorbidity (adjusted OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.76). Among the long-term conditions, diabetes (aOR = 0.73, 95%CI 0.70-0.77), heart failure (aOR = 0.81, 95%CI 0.73-0.91), ischemic heart disease (aOR = 0.74, 95%CI 0.69-0.79), schizophrenia (aOR = 0.79, 95%CI 0.65-0.97), depression/anxiety (aOR = 0.91, 95%CI 0.86-0.95), dementia (aOR = 0.87, 95%CI 0.80-0.95), and osteoarthritis (aOR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.85-0.93) were associated with a lower likelihood of uncontrolled BP. CONCLUSION: We found that multimorbidity was associated with better BP control. Several conditions were associated with better control, including diabetes, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, schizophrenia, depression/anxiety, dementia, and osteoarthritis.

Remote exercise testing in pulmonary hypertension (PHRET).

Remote exercise tests for patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) would improve the telemedicine strategies in this disease. The PHRET study assessed the validity and feasibility of four remote exercise tests performed by PH patients at home. Participants undergoing diagnostic assessment for PH were included. At baseline, patients completed a 6MWT followed by a range of study tests including a Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, a Sit-to-Stand (STS), a Step Test (ST), and a tele-6MWT (T6MWT) performed outside using a GPS-enabled smartphone. Patients performed these tests at home following discharge and at first follow-up. Analysis focused on comparing the results of study tests to the standard 6MWT. The discontinuation rate was 15%. Ninety-seven percent of patients were able to complete a TUG, 92% a STS, 73% a ST, and 49% a T6MWT. At baseline, correlation between the standard 6MWT and study tests, respectively, was T6MWT 0.93, ST 0.78, STS 0.71, and TUG -0.76 (p < 0.001). Direction of change in the study test agreed with the standard 6MWT in 68% of the follow-up ST, 68% of the STS, 71% of the TUG, and 79% of the T6MWT. Patients were able to complete the tests at home, there were no adverse incidents and ≥92% of patients were happy to continue performing home tests. Remote exercise testing is feasible. The T6MWT was a valid remote measure of exercise capacity, but could only be performed by a limited number of patients. The high discontinuation rate may impact the utility of remote tests.

Social connection and mortality in UK Biobank: a prospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Components of social connection are associated with mortality, but research examining their independent and combined effects in the same dataset is lacking. This study aimed to examine the independent and combined associations between functional and structural components of social connection and mortality. METHODS: Analysis of 458,146 participants with full data from the UK Biobank cohort linked to mortality registers. Social connection was assessed using two functional (frequency of ability to confide in someone close and often feeling lonely) and three structural (frequency of friends/family visits, weekly group activities, and living alone) component measures. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. RESULTS: Over a median of 12.6 years (IQR 11.9-13.3) follow-up, 33,135 (7.2%) participants died, including 5112 (1.1%) CVD deaths. All social connection measures were independently associated with both outcomes. Friends/family visit frequencies < monthly were associated with a higher risk of mortality indicating a threshold effect. There were interactions between living alone and friends/family visits and between living alone and weekly group activity. For example, compared with daily friends/family visits-not living alone, there was higher all-cause mortality for daily visits-living alone (HR 1.19 [95% CI 1.12-1.26]), for never having visits-not living alone (1.33 [1.22-1.46]), and for never having visits-living alone (1.77 [1.61-1.95]). Never having friends/family visits whilst living alone potentially counteracted benefits from other components as mortality risks were highest for those reporting both never having visits and living alone regardless of weekly group activity or functional components. When all measures were combined into overall functional and structural components, there was an interaction between components: compared with participants defined as not isolated by both components, those considered isolated by both components had higher CVD mortality (HR 1.63 [1.51-1.76]) than each component alone (functional isolation 1.17 [1.06-1.29]; structural isolation 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). CONCLUSIONS: This work suggests (1) a potential threshold effect for friends/family visits, (2) that those who live alone with additional concurrent markers of structural isolation may represent a high-risk population, (3) that beneficial associations for some types of social connection might not be felt when other types of social connection are absent, and (4) considering both functional and structural components of social connection may help to identify the most isolated in society.

Personalised lung cancer risk stratification and lung cancer screening: do general practice electronic medical records have a role?

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom (UK), cancer screening invitations are based on general practice (GP) registrations. We hypothesize that GP electronic medical records (EMR) can be utilised to calculate a lung cancer risk score with good accuracy/clinical utility. METHODS: The development cohort was Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-SAIL (2.3 million GP EMR) and the validation cohort was UK Biobank-UKB (N = 211,597 with GP-EMR availability). Fast backward method was applied for variable selection and area under the curve (AUC) evaluated discrimination. RESULTS: Age 55-75 were included (SAIL: N = 574,196; UKB: N = 137,918). Six-year lung cancer incidence was 1.1% (6430) in SAIL and 0.48% (656) in UKB. The final model included 17/56 variables in SAIL for the EMR-derived score: age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking status, family history, body mass index (BMI), BMI:smoking interaction, alcohol misuse, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, dementia, hypertension, painful condition, stroke, peripheral vascular disease and history of previous cancer and previous pneumonia. The GP-EMR-derived score had AUC of 80.4% in SAIL and 74.4% in UKB and outperformed ever-smoked criteria (currently the first step in UK lung cancer screening pilots). DISCUSSION: A GP-EMR-derived score may have a role in UK lung cancer screening by accurately targeting high-risk individuals without requiring patient contact.

Understanding covid-19 outcomes among people with intellectual disabilities in England.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from the UK from the early stages of the covid-19 pandemic showed that people with Intellectual Disabilities (ID) had higher rates of covid-19 mortality than people without ID. However, estimates of the magnitude of risk vary widely; different studies used different time periods; and only early stages of the pandemic have been analysed. Existing analyses of risk factors have also been limited. The objective of this study was to investigate covid-19 mortality rates, hospitalisation rates, and risk factors in people with ID in England up to the end of 2021. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all people with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or death involving covid-19. Datasets covering primary care, secondary care, covid-19 tests and vaccinations, prescriptions, and deaths were linked at individual level. RESULTS: Covid-19 carries a disproportionately higher risk of death for people with ID, above their already higher risk of dying from other causes, in comparison to those without ID. Around 2,000 people with ID had a death involving covid-19 in England up to the end of 2021; approximately 1 in 180. The covid-19 standardized mortality ratio was 5.6 [95% CI 5.4, 5.9]. People with ID were also more likely to be hospitalised for covid-19 than people without ID. The main determinants of severe covid-19 outcomes (deaths and/or hospitalisations) in both populations were age, multimorbidity and vaccination status. The key factor responsible for the higher risk of severe covid-19 in the ID population was a much higher prevalence of multimorbidity in this population. AstraZeneca vaccine was slightly less effective in preventing severe covid-19 outcomes among people with ID than among people without ID. CONCLUSIONS: People with ID should be considered a priority group in future pandemics, such as shielding and vaccinations.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.

The MRC Dyspnoea Scale and mortality risk prediction in pulmonary arterial hypertension: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

Risk stratification models in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) rely on World Health Organisation Functional Class (WHO FC). A high proportion of patients are classified as WHO FC III, a heterogenous group which limits the stratification abilities of risk models. The Medical Research Council (MRC) Dyspnoea Scale may allow a more precise assessment of functional status and improve current risk models. We investigated the ability of the MRC Dyspnoea Scale to assess survival in PAH and compared performance to WHO FC and the COMPERA 2.0 models. Patients with Idiopathic, Hereditary or Drug-induced PAH who were diagnosed between 2010 and 2021 were included. The MRC Dyspnoea Scale was retrospectively applied as derived from a combination of patient notes, 6MWD tests results and WHO functional status using a purpose-designed algorithm. Survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analyses, log rank testing and Cox proportional hazard ratios. Model performance was compared with Harrell's C Statistic. Data from 216 patients were retrospectively analyzed. At baseline, of 120 patients classified as WHO FC III, 8% were MRC Dyspnoea Scale 2, 12% Scale 3, 71% Scale 4 and 10% Scale 5. The MRC Dyspnoea Scale performed well compared to the WHO FC and COMPERA models at follow up (respectively, C-statistic 0.74 vs. 0.69 vs. 0.75). It was possible to use the MRC Dyspnoea Scale to subdivide patients in WHO FC III into groups which had distinct survival estimates. We conclude that at follow-up, the MRC Dyspnoea Scale may be a valid tool for the assessment of risk stratification in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Classification of long-term condition patterns in rheumatoid arthritis and associations with adverse health events: a UK Biobank cohort study.

Purpose: We aimed to classify individuals with RA and ≥2 additional long-term conditions (LTCs) and describe the association between different LTC classes, number of LTCs and adverse health outcomes. Methods: We used UK Biobank participants who reported RA (n=5,625) and employed latent class analysis (LCA) to create classes of LTC combinations for those with ≥2 additional LTCs. Cox-proportional hazard and negative binomial regression were used to compare the risk of all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiac events (MACE), and number of emergency hospitalisations over an 11-year follow-up across the different LTC classes and in those with RA plus one additional LTC. Persons with RA without LTCs were the reference group. Analyses were adjusted for demographic characteristics, smoking, BMI, alcohol consumption and physical activity. Results: A total of 2,566 (46%) participants reported ≥2 LTCs in addition to RA. This involved 1,138 distinct LTC combinations of which 86% were reported by ≤2 individuals. LCA identified 5 morbidity-classes. The distinctive condition in the class with the highest mortality was cancer (class 5; HR 2.66 95%CI (1.91-3.70)). The highest MACE (HR 2.95 95%CI (2.11-4.14)) and emergency hospitalisations (rate ratio 3.01 (2.56-3.54)) were observed in class 3 which comprised asthma, COPD & CHD. There was an increase in mortality, MACE and emergency hospital admissions within each class as the number of LTCs increased. Conclusions: The risk of adverse health outcomes in RA varied with different patterns of multimorbidity. The pattern of multimorbidity should be considered in risk assessment and formulating management plans in patients with RA.

The HEADS: UP Development Study: Working with Key Stakeholders to Adapt a Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction Course for People with Anxiety and Depression after Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Following stroke, rates of mood disorder are and remain high at five years (anxiety 34.4%; depression 23%). Structured mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) courses are effective in a range of health conditions, but stroke survivors find adherence challenging. We aimed to adapt a standard MBSR course specifically for people affected by stroke. METHODS: We recruited stroke survivors and family members with symptoms of anxiety and/or depression to take part in a co-development study comprising two rounds of MBSR 'taster' sessions, followed by focus groups in which views were sought on the practices sampled. Data were collected in October 2017 and May 2018 and were analysed using framework analysis, informed adaptations to mindfulness materials and delivery. RESULTS: Twenty-eight stroke survivors and seven family members participated. Nineteen (76%) stroke survivors had anxiety; 15 (60%) had depression. Five (71.4%) family members reported anxiety; n = 4 (57.1%) depression. Thirty participants attended the first round of taster sessions and focus groups; twenty (66%) the second and three (10%) were unable to attend either round. Framework analysis informed adaptations to course delivery, practices, and materials, ultimately resulting in a stroke-specific MBSR course, HEADS: UP (Helping Ease Anxiety and Depression after Stroke). CONCLUSIONS: HEADS: UP may provide a feasible, appropriate, and meaningful self-management intervention to help alleviate symptoms of mood disorder.

Chronic pain and COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality: a UK Biobank cohort study.

ABSTRACT: The risk of COVID-19 in those with chronic pain is unknown. We investigated whether self-reported chronic pain was associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation or mortality. UK Biobank recruited 502,624 participants aged 37 to 73 years between 2006 and 2010. Baseline exposure data, including chronic pain (>3 months, in at least 1 of 7 prespecified body sites) and chronic widespread pain (>3 months, all over body), were linked to COVID-19 hospitalisations or mortality. Univariable or multivariable Poisson regression analyses were performed on the association between chronic pain and COVID-19 hospitalisation and Cox regression analyses of the associations with COVID-19 mortality. Multivariable analyses adjusted incrementally for sociodemographic confounders, then lifestyle risk factors, and finally long-term condition count. Of 441,403 UK Biobank participants with complete data, 3180 (0.7%) were hospitalised for COVID-19 and 1040 (0.2%) died from COVID-19. Chronic pain was associated with hospital admission for COVID-19 even after adjustment for all covariates (incidence rate ratio 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.24; P < 0.001), as was chronic widespread pain (incidence rate ratio 1.33; 95% CI 1.06-1.66; P = 0.012). There was clear evidence of a dose-response relationship with number of pain sites (fully adjusted global P -value < 0.001). After adjustment for all covariates, there was no association between chronic pain (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.89-1.15; P = 0.834) but attenuated association with chronic widespread pain (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.04-2.16, P -value = 0.032) and COVID-19 mortality. Chronic pain is associated with higher risk of hospitalisation for COVID-19, but the association with mortality is unclear. Future research is required to investigate these findings further and determine whether pain is associated with long COVID.

Molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for adults with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes (PANORAMIC): an open-label, platform-adaptive randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral medication for SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. We aimed to establish whether the addition of molnupiravir to usual care reduced hospital admissions and deaths associated with COVID-19 in this population. METHODS: PANORAMIC was a UK-based, national, multicentre, open-label, multigroup, prospective, platform adaptive randomised controlled trial. Eligible participants were aged 50 years or older-or aged 18 years or older with relevant comorbidities-and had been unwell with confirmed COVID-19 for 5 days or fewer in the community. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 800 mg molnupiravir twice daily for 5 days plus usual care or usual care only. A secure, web-based system (Spinnaker) was used for randomisation, which was stratified by age (<50 years vs ≥50 years) and vaccination status (yes vs no). COVID-19 outcomes were tracked via a self-completed online daily diary for 28 days after randomisation. The primary outcome was all-cause hospitalisation or death within 28 days of randomisation, which was analysed using Bayesian models in all eligible participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 30448031. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 26 411 participants were randomly assigned, 12 821 to molnupiravir plus usual care, 12 962 to usual care alone, and 628 to other treatment groups (which will be reported separately). 12 529 participants from the molnupiravir plus usual care group, and 12 525 from the usual care group were included in the primary analysis population. The mean age of the population was 56·6 years (SD 12·6), and 24 290 (94%) of 25 708 participants had had at least three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Hospitalisations or deaths were recorded in 105 (1%) of 12 529 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group versus 98 (1%) of 12 525 in the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio 1·06 [95% Bayesian credible interval 0·81-1·41]; probability of superiority 0·33). There was no evidence of treatment interaction between subgroups. Serious adverse events were recorded for 50 (0·4%) of 12 774 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and for 45 (0·3%) of 12 934 in the usual care group. None of these events were judged to be related to molnupiravir. INTERPRETATION: Molnupiravir did not reduce the frequency of COVID-19-associated hospitalisations or death among high-risk vaccinated adults in the community. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Association between risk, duration and cause of hospitalisations in people with rheumatoid arthritis and multimorbidity in the UK Biobank and Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (SERA) cohorts: Longitudinal observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate association between presence of multimorbidity in people with established and early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and risk, duration and cause of hospitalisations. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING: UK Biobank, population-based cohort recruited between 2006 and 2010, and the Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (SERA), inception cohort recruited between 2011 and 2015. Both linked to mortality and hospitalisation data. PARTICIPANTS: 4757 UK Biobank participants self-reporting established RA; 825 SERA participants with early RA meeting the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria. Participants stratified by number of long-term conditions (LTCs) in addition to RA (RA only, RA + 1 LTC and RA + ≥ 2 LTCs) and matched to five non-RA controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number and duration of hospitalisations and their causes. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) calculated using negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Participants with RA + ≥ 2 LTCs experienced higher hospitalisation rates compared to those with RA alone (UK Biobank: IRR 2.10, 95% CI 1.91 to 2.30; SERA: IRR 1.74, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.48). Total duration of hospitalisation in RA + ≥ 2 LTCs was also higher (UK Biobank: IRR 2.48, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.84; SERA: IRR 1.90, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.38) than with RA alone. Rate and total duration of hospitalisations was higher in UK Biobank RA participants than non-RA controls with equivalent number of LTCs. Hospitalisations for respiratory infection were higher in early RA than established RA and were the commonest cause of hospital admission in early RA. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with established or early RA with multimorbidity experienced a higher rate and duration of hospitalisations than those with RA alone and with non-RA matched controls.